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پایگاه اطلاع رسانی انجمن تخته نرد ایران - More Than One Way to Win
 
سه شنبه 7 شهریور 1391 :: نویسنده : رشت کت

 
 

More Than One Way to Win

by Alex Zamanian
Here's a position that was played as a take/drop prop in the Bostonarea recently.

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Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

White doubles. Does Blue have a take?

Three intermediate players thought it was a drop, while two expert playersthought it was a take. Snowie rollouts indicates that it is in fact aneasy take. What is interesting though, was how badly the intermediate playersmisjudged the position. They all thought it was a not just a pass, buta big pass. But passing this position costs a whopping .4 points,according to the rollouts. What is it about this position that caused threedecent players to misevaluate so badly?

When one of the intermediate players was asked why she thought it wasa pass, she said something to the effect of, "Three men on the 3 pointbehind a solid 5 prime indicates a pass. The timing of the priming gameis very bad for Blue, that indicates a pass. If Blue gets to attack White,he has to successfully complete the attack and then escape three men frombehind a 5 prime, very hard to do. Everything points to passing."

Her analysis is actually quite accurate, in a way. If Blue's only wayto win was to win using his 3-point game, then this position would be agood-sized pass. If Blue's only way to win was to win the priming gameby containing White's checkers, then this position would be a good-sizedpass. If Blue's only way to win was to attack White's checkers as he vacatedthe 4 point, then extricating his own back checkers, then this positionwould be a good-sized pass. What she didn't realize was that Blue can winin any of those three ways, and he has good chances to try themall.

For example, if White rolls 6-2 and plays 21/13, Blue can attack withtwos, threes, and fours, while escaping with sixes. If White rolls 2-2and plays 13/5, the timing of the priming game doesn't look too bad forBlue anymore if he can roll a 6 soon. If White rolls well and safely escapeshis three back checkers, Blue still retains significant winning chancesthrough the racing and shot hitting chances of his three-point game. Bluehas all these different ways to win, and he just needs one of them to comethrough for him. 
 

This concept comes up with ace-point and deuce-point games quite often. 

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White on roll

White's Cube ess equity in this position is about .750, which means Bluehas a pass of White's double. It's a big pass, but not a monster one, whichmeans if Blue has a well-timed deuce-point game and some other decentway to win, he likely has a take. 

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White on roll

For example, from this position, Blue will likely end up with a positionsimilar to his deuce-point game in the previous position. However, thatis just about as bad as Blue can do, and he has another real way to win.Over half of White's rolls fail to safety his blot, when Blue might hitand have chances to build a counter-prime. If Blue had to count on oneor the other of his two ways to win, he would have to pass White's cube.But since Blue can sometimes try priming, then fall back on his deuce-pointgame if things go badly, he can comfortably take here.
 

A holding game can yield two ways to win; racing, or hitting a shot.Often times the racing chances aren't enough to take, but the shot hittingchances compensate for this deficiency.  

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White on roll

For example, in the above position, Blue trails in the race by 15% of theleader's pipcount, which usually indicates a pass. Blue's shot hittingchances aren't that great, either. White will usually have two chancesto roll a good number to cleanly clear the 10 point, and even if Whitedoes leave a shot, Blue still has to hit it. In addition, Blue may be forced to break his board or run with one Checker exposing him to attack before he gets a shot. However, he definately has some shot-hitting chances, and Blue's racing chancesalone are almost enough for him to take. Here the shot-hitting andracing chances add up to a close take for Blue.
 

It is often easy to take a look at one bad aspect of a position andconclude that it is a pass. What is more difficult is seeing several badaspects of a position and recognizing that when put together, they addup to a take. 






نوع مطلب : مقالات زبان اصلی، 
برچسب ها : تخته نرد - آموزش تخته- تخته انلاین-تخته- نرم افزار تخته نرد -backgammon-،
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شنبه 25 شهریور 1396 07:27 ب.ظ
Incredible! This blog looks just like my old one! It's on a totally
different subject but it has pretty much the same layout
and design. Outstanding choice of colors!
یکشنبه 12 شهریور 1396 07:13 ق.ظ
I'm really enjoying the design and layout of your website.

It's a very easy on the eyes which makes it much
more pleasant for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a designer to create your theme?
Great work!
 
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